The "cardboard box decline" has raised the alarm! Q2 shipments hit a 10-year low as the resilience of US consumption was hit by Trump's tariffs

The Zhitong Finance APP has noticed that analysts and investors will be searching for clues on the economic feelings of American households in Friday's retail sales report. And those who observe the cardboard box industry say they have caught a glimpse. As a non-traditional economic indicator, the sales of corrugated cardboard used for transporting various goods from donuts to dishwashers are declining, indicating that retail demand in various industries may experience adjustments in the near future.

According to the Fiber Carton Association, the shipment volume of cardboard boxes in the United States (i.e. the volume of empty packaging materials sold to retailers) has fallen to the lowest second quarter level since 2015. Corrugated cardboard is also used for other products such as 3D advertising displays, but as the vast majority of it is used for packaging, the industry typically; Carton shipment volume; With '; Corrugated cardboard shipment volume; Mixed use. )

International Paper, one of the world's largest pulp and paper companies headquartered in Memphis, reported a 5% year-on-year decline in daily cardboard box shipments in the United States during the quarter. Dublin packaging giant Smurfapa Group recorded a 4.5% decline in North American corrugated cardboard sales, the largest decline among all its operating regions.

CEO Anthony Murphy stated during a recent earnings call that:; If sales in the United States rebound, it will boost our confidence, but we have not seen any signs yet. "

In a country where consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of the economy, any retail contraction would alert economic observers and government officials.

In June, US retail sales rebounded after two consecutive months of decline, temporarily easing concerns about consumer health. The retail data for July will be released on August 15th, and current forecasts indicate a month on month increase, partly due to online promotions such as Prime Day.

Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School, pointed out that although the highly seasonal cardboard industry is not a direct indicator of retail spending, it, like beauty spending or consumer confidence index, can issue warnings at the beginning of problems. Due to the fact that cardboard boxes are usually not pre ordered, they can reflect purchasing and manufacturing activities in near real-time. " It evolves synchronously with the demand of consumer goods and their manufacturers; House said.

The decline in packaging demand in 2025 is mainly related to President Trump's confusing signals on tariffs. Enterprises are unwilling to stockpile large volume packaging materials until the impact of tariffs on costs and long-term demand for end products becomes clear.

FedEx and UPS, among other courier companies, have not updated their annual guidance as usual due to the uncertain situation. However, UPS CEO Carol Tomme told analysts that the small parcel market was affected in the last quarter; Adverse impact on US consumer confidence approaching historical lows;.

Murphy stated at the financial report conference in late July that he hopes for a rebound in demand in August and September; The prerequisite is that the issue of tariffs can be settled;.

Bloomberg think tank analyst Ryan Fox pointed out that organic growth in consumer goods; It doesn't exist at all; Even supermarkets have appeared; Buy two get three free "; Promotion is never a signal of good demand. Former seller analyst Adam Josephson added that low housing transaction volume means consumers are no longer purchasing large items such as refrigerators and double sofas in large quantities that require cardboard packaging.

This is in sharp contrast to the initial stage of the COVID-19, when packaging demand surged and some pulp mills in North America converted to cardboard, resulting in a temporary shortage of cultural paper. About 100 million product catalogs were not delivered to American consumer mailboxes in the fall of 2021 because printers were unable to obtain paper. However, the cardboard sales brought about by the pandemic were only a brief respite for this industry that has long been plagued by high costs and outdated facilities.

The Smurfapa Group has just announced the closure of an old factory in Iowa, and International Paper also announced earlier this year that it will shut down four factories, including a factory in Louisiana that produces boxboard paper (brown paper used for box making).

The factory was once the seventh largest employer in the Nagitosh diocese, and its closure led to the closure of two schools by the local school board due to reduced tax revenue.

The mayor of nearby Nakitosh, Xiaoloni Williams, said:; This is due to economic laws, and the international paper industry must examine its business model; Their ancestors have all worked in this factory that has been in operation for 50 years.

Ron Sassing, founder of retail packaging consulting firm Hudson Windsor, believes that if Trump can revive the US manufacturing industry and drive more locally produced products that need to be transported, it may become a redemption for the industry. But this needs to offset the impact of reduced imports - imported goods usually need to be unpacked and reassembled, which is a process that consumes cardboard boxes. He also pointed out that the decline in US food exports to trading partners may also impact packaging demand.

" Carton manufacturers are eagerly anticipating a rebound in demand, but the situation remains unchanged and beyond their control; Josephson stated, '; All the indicators I track point in a less optimistic direction. "